US data center moratoriums delay only about 2.3 GW, SemiAnalysis finds

What the audit found

A moratorium is a temporary legal pause, usually a freeze on new applications. More than 300 local ones now cover data centers across the US. But they are likely to delay only three projects, according to a SemiAnalysis review reported by Tom's Hardware.

Those three projects add up to about 2.3 GW. A gigawatt (GW) is a billion watts, roughly the output of a large power plant. About 21 GW of planned data center capacity sits inside moratorium areas, so most of it is not affected.

The bigger picture

SemiAnalysis expects 38 GW of US data center IT capacity, the power used by the computers themselves, to come online in 2027. That is more than double the 2026 figure. Of that total, 22 GW is already being built, with structures going up. Another 16 GW or so is mostly paid for, with site work under way.

Local pauses that have actually passed cover about 20 GW. Only about 1.5 GW of that is delayed. New York's statewide pause adds another 0.8 GW.

The firm tracks more than 400 local rules in 17 states. New York, Texas, Pennsylvania and Oregon all acted within two months this summer.

Why most bans miss

Most moratoriums freeze new applications. They do not cancel approvals already given. So sites that already have permits, or are already being built, carry on.

A pause only delays a project if several things line up. It must cover that exact plot of land. It must be in force at the right time. And it must apply to the planned use, with no way around it.

Examples from the audit

Michigan has 45 moratoriums in force but almost no projects affected. One Google campus there sits on land already zoned, or approved, for data processing. In Texas, SpaceX's planned site in Brownsville is on land the city removed from its limits.

One pause did work. A Pennsylvania township acted before the developer NorthPoint applied for a special exception, a permit for a use the zoning does not normally allow. That pushed local approval into next year.

What to watch next

The 2.3 GW figure leaves out the biggest open risk. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has told TCEQ, the state's environmental regulator, to issue no permits for data center projects. Law firm Bracewell expects that to last until ERCOT, the Texas grid operator, finishes its review in mid-December.

How that pause ends will matter more to the 2027 number than the count of local bans. So will a second question: whether local opposition pushes new projects to other states instead of stopping them.