LevelTen: Solar PPA Price Hits $64.23/MWh in Q3 as Tariffs Bite

Why the price matters for data-center power

Power contracts are how many data-center developers secure supply while grid connections take years. Wolf said 99% of new-build PPAs signed in Q1 2026 went to hyperscalers, and Utility Dive, citing the Clean Energy Buyers Association (CEBA), reported that first-time PPA buyers have fallen to their lowest level since 2016. LevelTen's summary says the largest buyers, many pursuing data center energization targets, have dominated PPA activity over the past year. Voltgrid News reported earlier on Google's Loviisa nuclear offtake.

A rising solar price therefore lands first on the buyers that set the pace for new load. If the $3 to $7 per MWh estimate holds, it would add roughly 5% to 11% to the $64.23/MWh Core-Markets figure. That arithmetic is Voltgrid's, not LevelTen's. Other hyperscaler power deals are covered in three US reactor restarts backed by Microsoft and Google.

Wind is flat on paper, scarce in practice

LevelTen's continental P25 wind price was essentially flat, down 0.1% in the quarter. The Core-Markets P25 wind price was $68.27/MWh. Wind prices rose in most markets, but a modest decline in ERCOT, the Texas grid operator, pulled the continental figure down because ERCOT has a much larger offer pool. Utility Dive reports wind PPA prices are up 13.8% year over year and 27.5% since 2024.

Supply is the constraint. LevelTen says many US wind projects are stalled because the FAA and the Department of Defense are not issuing Determination of No Hazard permits or mitigation agreements. With the pipeline not replenishing, some buyers are turning to operating wind projects to lower risk, and Wolf said prices for new-build and existing-project PPAs are roughly comparable.

What is not confirmed yet

Part of the Q3 solar increase is anticipatory, as buyers try to lock in contracts before the tariffs begin, so the full tariff effect is not yet in the index. The $3 to $7 per MWh range is LevelTen's estimate rather than an observed market price, and the full methodology for the Core-Markets metric and regional solar detail sit in the subscriber-only report.

Wolf expects PPA prices to keep rising. Developers must place projects in service by the end of 2030 to receive tax credits, and she said they are racing to lock in projects that still qualify. For readers tracking power costs, the next index will show how much of the tariff cost reaches contracts.